· The talks begin: US and Iran open negotiations at Burgenstock, a ~80-minute first round, then Iran walks the room
· The threats: Trump says Iran will not have a country if it closes Hormuz; Graham says Trump takes the strait by force if the deal fails
· Hormuz contested: Iran says shut, CENTCOM says open; Windward tracks 12, Wright claims 67, ships run dark
· Lebanon eases but holds: Israel goes defensive-only and lifts northern restrictions, but keeps Beaufort, the toll passes 4,000
· A significant result: Iran hold 10-man Belgium 0-0 in Los Angeles, Group G blown open
DAY 114 SUN 7:00 PM ET EVENING BRIEF. War 114 / Deal signed Day 4 / Hormuz contested / Trickle-Back Day 7 / Midterms T-135. THE TALKS BEGIN. US and Iran negotiators met at Burgenstock on Lake Lucerne for a first round of about 80 minutes, then Iran's team left the room and state media said the talks had entered a difficult phase after what it called an insulting message from Trump. The session covered frozen assets and an oil-sanctions-relief draft, not the nuclear file. Vance led the US side with Witkoff and Kushner; Ghalibaf and Araghchi led Iran; Pakistan's Sharif and Munir and Qatar mediated. Vance said the goal was to transform the Middle East. Iran's precondition held firm: end the Lebanon war first. No one walked out of the venue.
THE THREATS AND THE STRAIT — Trump told Fox that Pezeshkian better watch his mouth and that if Iran closes Hormuz it will not have a country; he warned he would hit Iran harder than last week. Graham said on CBS that if the deal fails Trump will take the strait by force and charge a fee. Iran says the strait is shut again over Lebanon; CENTCOM says it is open. Windward tracked 12 transits Sunday and Kpler 20, against 130 prewar, with ships running dark; Energy Secretary Wright claimed 67 in 24 hours through a southern lane around Iran's mines and said flows are back to normal.
LEBANON EASED BUT UNRESOLVED — Israel ordered its military to act defensively only inside the security zone and lifted all northern-border restrictions from Monday 6 AM, and no strikes were reported by late Sunday. But Katz ruled out leaving Beaufort Castle, Netanyahu said Israel stays as long as it takes, and Hezbollah's Qassem rejected the occupation and vowed to respond. The toll has passed 4,000.
MARKETS (CASH DARK) — equities closed for the weekend, oil futures reopen Sunday night with the talks underway against the reclosure claim. Brent last near $78, gas under $4 with Wright guiding lower, BTC ~$64K eyeing a $70K test and XRP ~$1.16 paired, gold firm ~$4,150 on the haven bid. No called market-index move; Energy 77, Gold 72, Crypto 85 hold.
ELSEWHERE AND THE INDEX — Trump posted that Starmer will resign and told Britain to open North Sea oil, with a Monday exit expected as Burnham closes in; the Meloni spat escalated and Tajani canceled his US trip; Ukraine ran its largest Moscow-refinery strike and Zelensky gave Belarus a week on relay stations; Iran inflation hit 77.2%, the highest since World War II. WORLD CUP — a significant result: Iran held 10-man Belgium to a 0-0 draw in Los Angeles behind Beiranvand's saves, blowing Group G open; the brief keeps France No. 1. INDEX DAY 114 EVENING: ALL FOURTEEN HOLD, no called move. Legitimacy 3 ON LIFE SUPPORT. The talks are live, the strait is the chit, and Lebanon is still the wire, T-135 to November.
Day 114 Sunday Evening 7:00 PM ET. War 114 / Deal signed Day 4 / Hormuz contested / Trickle-Back Day 7 / Midterms T-135. THE TALKS BEGIN: US and Iran negotiators open at Burgenstock on Lake Lucerne, a first round of about 80 minutes, then Iran's team leaves the room and state media says the talks entered a difficult phase after an insulting Trump message.
WHAT WAS ON THE TABLE — frozen assets and an oil-sanctions-relief draft, per Iran's negotiators, not the nuclear file; Vance fronts the US side with Witkoff and Kushner, Ghalibaf and Araghchi lead Iran, Pakistan's Sharif and Munir and Qatar mediate. Vance: the goal is to transform the Middle East.
THE THREATS — Trump tells Fox that Pezeshkian better watch his mouth and that Iran will not have a country if it closes Hormuz, and warns he will hit harder than last week; Graham says on CBS that if the deal fails Trump takes the strait by force and charges a fee.
TEHRAN'S CONDITION — Iran will not move to a final agreement until the Lebanon war ends; the delegation came to make the US guarantee Israel's compliance, not to negotiate the nuclear file. Mr. Robert: the strait is the chit and Tehran is playing it, all fourteen hold with no called move.
LEBANON EASES BUT UNRESOLVED — Israel orders its military defensive-only inside the security zone and lifts all northern-border restrictions from Monday 6 AM, with no strikes reported by late Sunday; but Katz rules out leaving Beaufort Castle, Netanyahu says as long as it takes, Hezbollah's Qassem rejects the occupation and vows to respond, the toll passes 4,000.
HORMUZ CONTESTED — Iran says the strait is shut again over Lebanon, CENTCOM says it is open; Windward tracks 12 transits Sunday and Kpler 20 against 130 prewar, ships run dark, and Energy Secretary Wright claims 67 through a southern lane around Iran's mines and says flows are back to normal. Trump still floats a US Guardian-Angel toll after 60 days.
ELSEWHERE — Trump posts that Starmer will resign and tells Britain to open North Sea oil, a Monday exit expected as Burnham closes in; the Meloni spat escalates and Tajani cancels his US trip; Ukraine runs its largest Moscow-refinery strike and Zelensky gives Belarus a week on relay stations; Iran inflation hits 77.2%, the highest since World War II.
MARKETS — cash dark on the weekend, oil futures reopen Sunday night with the talks live against the reclosure claim; Brent last ~$78, gas under $4 with Wright guiding lower, BTC ~$64K eyeing a $70K test and XRP ~$1.16 paired, gold firm ~$4,150 on the haven bid. No called market-index move; Energy 77, Gold 72, Crypto 85 hold.
WORLD CUP AND THE INDEX — a significant result: Iran held 10-man Belgium to a 0-0 draw in Los Angeles, Beiranvand keeping them in it with a point-blank save on De Cuyper and Taremi's goal ruled offside; Group G is blown open and Iran next plays Egypt. The brief keeps France No. 1. INDEX DAY 114 EVENING: ALL FOURTEEN HOLD, no called move; Legitimacy 3 ON LIFE SUPPORT. The talks are live and Lebanon is still the wire, T-135 to November.
7:00 PM ET SUNDAY — DAY 114. The talks begin. US and Iran negotiators met at Burgenstock on Lake Lucerne for a first round of about 80 minutes, then Iran's team left the room and state media said the talks entered a difficult phase after an insulting Trump message. Vance led with Witkoff and Kushner; Ghalibaf and Araghchi led Iran; Pakistan and Qatar mediated. Mr. Robert: all fourteen hold, no called move. No one walked out of the venue.
WHAT WAS ON THE TABLE — frozen assets and an oil-sanctions-relief draft, per Iran's negotiators, not the nuclear file. Vance said the goal was to transform the Middle East. Iran's precondition held: end the Lebanon war first.
THE THREATS AND THE STRAIT — Trump said Pezeshkian better watch his mouth and that Iran will not have a country if it closes Hormuz. Graham said Trump takes the strait by force if the deal fails. Iran says the strait is shut; CENTCOM says it is open. Windward tracked 12 transits and Kpler 20, Wright claimed 67, ships ran dark.
LEBANON EASED BUT UNRESOLVED — Israel went defensive-only in the security zone and lifted northern restrictions from Monday, with no strikes by late Sunday. But Katz held Beaufort, Netanyahu said as long as it takes, Hezbollah vowed to respond. The toll passed 4,000.
ELSEWHERE AND THE CUP — Trump posted that Starmer will resign and told Britain to open North Sea oil, a Monday exit expected as Burnham closes in. The Meloni spat escalated and Tajani canceled. Ukraine ran its largest Moscow-refinery strike. Markets stayed dark; Brent ~$78, gas under $4, BTC ~$64K and XRP ~$1.16 paired, gold ~$4,150. A significant result: Iran held 10-man Belgium 0-0 in Los Angeles behind Beiranvand. France is still No. 1. The talks are live and Lebanon is still the wire, T-135 to November.
A significant result. Iran held Belgium to a 0-0 draw at Los Angeles Stadium behind a remarkable Alireza Beiranvand performance, including a point-blank block on Maxim De Cuyper that is already a save-of-the-tournament contender. Mehdi Taremi had a goal correctly ruled out for offside, and Belgium went down to ten men when Nathan Ngoy was sent off for hauling Taremi back. Belgium piled up 23 shots without scoring. The draw blows Group G wide open — Iran next play Egypt, Belgium face New Zealand. The brief keeps France No. 1; the USMNT, already through Group D, plays July 1 at Levi's.
Mr. Robert's read: a significant result, and Mr. Robert flagged it as one. Iran sit 22nd in the FIFA rankings but have been the side most up against it all tournament — travel disruption, staff and media denied visas, the war shadowing every match — and they frustrated a Belgium team that owned the ball and the chances but could not finish. Beiranvand, the former shepherd who once saved a Ronaldo penalty in 2018, kept the sheet. The brief's own power ranking holds per direction: France stay No. 1, untested. Iran's path to the knockouts is now live and Group G is the most open in the tournament. Expand any edition for the chart and the reasoning.
US and Iran negotiators met on Lake Lucerne for a first round of about 80 minutes before Iran's team left the room; state media said the talks had entered a difficult phase after what it called an insulting message from Trump. The session covered Iran's frozen assets and an oil-sanctions-relief draft, not the nuclear file. Vance led the US side with Witkoff and Kushner; Ghalibaf and Araghchi led Iran; Pakistan's Sharif and army chief Munir, with Qatar, mediated. Vance said the aim was to transform the Middle East. Iran's precondition held firm: end the Lebanon war first. No one walked out of the venue.
Iran's lead negotiator Ghalibaf warned the US to be careful with threats, saying Iran's forces are ready to respond and that it is Iran that acts. A draft on oil-sanctions waivers was finalized, per Tehran. The nuclear file — the hardest issue — was left for later rounds.
As Vance opened the talks, Trump told Fox that Iran's president better watch his mouth, that if Iran closes Hormuz it will not have a country, and that he would hit Iran harder than last week if Hezbollah keeps causing trouble. He said he can do whatever he wants after the 60-day option and floated taking over the strait and collecting 20 percent of the oil as a toll. On CBS, Senator Graham said that after four-plus hours with Trump on Friday, the fallback if the deal fails is for the US to seize the Strait of Hormuz by force and charge a fee for passage.
The rhetoric runs against Vance's outstretched-hand framing at the same hour — a now-familiar split where Trump ratchets up pressure for the domestic base while the delegation negotiates. Analysts read the threats as theater that may weaken Washington's hand, since resuming the war or the blockade carries costs Trump has said he wants to avoid.
The strait's status stayed in dispute. Iran says it is closed again over Israel's Lebanon strikes and the IRGC warns approaching ships; CENTCOM says Iran does not control the strait and traffic flows. Windward tracked 12 transits Sunday and Kpler 20, against a 130 daily prewar average, with the few crossing ships running their transponders dark to avoid detection. Energy Secretary Wright claimed 67 ships passed in 24 hours through a southern lane the US helped guide around Iran's mines, and said flows are back to normal and prices will keep falling.
The spread between the counts is the story — a verified number does not exist, which is itself the leverage. Even without firing, Iran can throttle traffic as cautious captains and insurers price the risk. Germany's defense minister blamed Trump for the closure; the UK maritime authority had not updated its southern-route guidance.
The Israel-Hezbollah fighting that nearly derailed the talks appeared to ease. Israel ordered its military to act defensively only inside its self-declared security zone and said all restrictions on northern-border communities would lift Monday at 6 AM, and no strikes were reported by late Sunday. But Defense Minister Katz ruled out leaving Beaufort Castle, Netanyahu said Israel stays as long as it takes, and Hezbollah's Qassem rejected the occupation and vowed to respond to any violation. The civilian toll in Lebanon has passed 4,000 this year. The chief of staff called the ceasefire fragile and said forces must stay ready.
The lifting of restrictions signals Israel does not expect the fighting to immediately intensify, and officials told Israeli media that US pressure is why Israel is minimizing strikes. But the deal puts Washington in the position of taking Iran's side over Israel's on Lebanon, and US intelligence has warned Israel may try to undermine it.
Trump posted on Truth Social that Keir Starmer will resign as UK prime minister, that he failed badly on immigration and energy, and that Britain should open North Sea oil — an extraordinary foray into British politics that stunned Westminster. Downing Street said the two had not spoken over the weekend, but a senior Labour MP told the Post that lawmakers are being briefed Starmer will step down Monday and that his position is untenable. His ally Peter Kyle pointedly declined to repeat Starmer's vow to fight on, saying the PM was weighing political realities. Andy Burnham, fresh off his Makerfield by-election win, is the favorite to take Labour.
It would make Starmer Britain's seventh prime minister in a decade. The focus has shifted from whether he goes to how — a full leadership contest with Streeting in the mix, or a quick rally around Burnham. Trump scooping the resignation before any UK statement is the headline that left observers calling it the final humiliation.
Trump slammed Italy and Meloni for not joining the US-Israel war on Iran, posting that after spending trillions on NATO, Italy would not get involved with Iran's nuclear threat and is not there when tested — an Article 5 jab. It followed his claim that Meloni begged for a photo at the G7 and only got one because he felt sorry for her, which she called a lie. Foreign Minister Tajani canceled a planned US trip. The split widens a transatlantic seam: Spain's Sanchez has clashed with Trump over the war and NATO spending, and Germany is pushing tech sovereignty.
The friction is no longer one-off. Trump branded Starmer no Winston Churchill earlier this year and skipped a bilateral at the G7; relations with close European allies are increasingly strained as he leans on them over defense spending, energy and the Iran war they declined to join.
Ukraine pressed its long-range campaign against Russian logistics, running what may be its largest drone strike yet on a Moscow refinery and hitting energy and transport links around Crimea, where Kremlin-installed authorities cut off civilian fuel sales and reserved supply for state services. Zelensky gave Belarus a one-week ultimatum to remove relay equipment he says guides Russian fire, warning that if Lukashenko does not, Ukraine will. He also warned of a planned massive Russian strike and told Ukrainians to take air-raid alerts seriously.
Kyiv's strikes are stretching Moscow's defenses and disrupting fuel to troops, ships and logistics hubs. The Crimea fuel cutoff is a visible sign the campaign is biting well behind the front line. Poland's president stripped Zelensky of an honor in a separate spat over a special-forces unit renaming.
Washington moved to restrict foreigners' access to Anthropic's latest AI models, a step that galvanized European leaders' push to wean off US tech and landed a week after the European Commission presented a tech-sovereignty package. Germany's space minister told POLITICO that the US cannot reach the moon without the European Service Module built in Bremen, warning that without Europe it cannot be done, while also cautioning that a Russia-China-North Korea-Iran bloc is forming in space. The export-control thread runs alongside the SpaceX runup and the looming Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs.
The restriction is the US treating frontier AI as a strategic asset to be gated, the same logic it has applied to advanced chips. Europe reads it as one more dependency to escape and is accelerating its own champions, even as Germany complains its own regulation holds them back.
Colombia holds a presidential runoff Sunday pitting the Trump-aligned right against the leftist Cepeda — a contest the brief reads as a referendum on a US-aligned turn in the hemisphere. It lands as the Donroe pattern continues: the US border and Pacific counter-narcotics mission grinds on with no end in sight, and the Western Hemisphere Consolidation thesis — Latin American supply build, Venezuela and Cuba tracks, a US-aligned political map — stays operationally live.
The runoff is the political expression of a thesis the brief has tracked through energy and security: a hemisphere being pulled into Washington's orbit by a mix of pressure and investment. A right-wing win would be read as consolidation; a Cepeda win as resistance.