Iran fires new type of ballistic missile with 100kg warhead at Tel Aviv — Col. Miki David: 'something we have not yet encountered in the war.' Extensive residential building damage, 6 treated for injuries. Separate Iranian barrage killed 6 Kurdish fighters in Iraq, wounded 30. Saudi Arabia and UAE stepping toward direct fight involvement (WSJ). 82nd Airborne combat brigade deployment under consideration. War continues on all fronts despite Trump's 'very strong talks' claim — Iran parliament speaker denied any talks. Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Oman all offering mediation. Russia Anatoly Kolodkin oil tanker (730K barrels crude) heading to Cuba escorted by Russian warship through English Channel — 'Atlantis, USA' listed as destination — US expected to intercept. Russia proposed quid pro quo to Witkoff-Kushner: stop Ukraine intel sharing, Russia stops giving Iran US military asset coordinates — US rejected. Bessent $14B Iran oil sanctions relief (general license, no escrow, no payment restrictions) — Bloomberg/NYT expose hypocrisy vs. Trump's 2016 attacks on Obama. Lebanon expels Iran ambassador, given until March 29 to leave. Philippines President Marcos declares state of national energy emergency. Mullin confirmed 54-45 as DHS Secretary, sworn in 1:30pm. DHS deal gaining momentum — reconciliation bill structure taking shape (ICE enforcement + SAVE Act provisions). Thune: second reconciliation bill now being actively discussed. EU-Australia free trade deal + defense partnership signed in Canberra — explicitly framed as China diversification and Trump-hedging. Denmark votes today. FP Dispatch from Tehran: Araghchi doctrine — 'We do not believe in a cease-fire. We believe in ending the war on all fronts.' Iran preparing for duration, not conceding. Oil $114/barrel international benchmark; gas $3.95/gallon (+34% since start of war). No safe havens: Bloomberg opinion says gold lost 25% of value, BTC down 40%+. Private credit stress: Apollo caps withdrawals from non-traded retail fund; KKR/Future Standard fund cut to junk by Moody's. AIPAC becoming 2028 Democratic flashpoint — multiple candidates distancing, Harris and Buttigieg not responding. AfD possibly leaking EU confidential documents to Russia/China via Bundestag data bank access — EU diplomats raising alarm. UK Reeves to Commons: 'principles' for targeted means-tested energy support, no detailed policy yet. Miliband: plug-in solar panels plan for high street shops.
Iran fired a new type of ballistic missile at Tel Aviv on Tuesday — the Israeli military confirmed a warhead of approximately 100 kilograms, which Col. Miki David described as 'something we have not yet encountered in the war.' Four impact sites confirmed in and around Tel Aviv; at least three residential buildings sustained extensive damage, cars caught fire, six people were treated for injuries. A separate Iranian barrage killed six Kurdish fighters and wounded 30 others in the semiautonomous Kurdish region of Iraq, with six ballistic missiles arriving in two separate waves at dawn. Saudi Arabia intercepted multiple drones; Kuwait's power grid lost seven lines from interception debris. The barrages came despite Trump's explicit claim of 'very strong talks' toward resolution — and they demonstrate the core structural truth of this phase: a diplomatic pause on US power plant strikes does not constitute a ceasefire. Iran continues to strike everything except the category Trump asked it to. The new 100kg warhead is the most operationally significant single weapon disclosure since the war began. If Iran has been conserving this capability, as experts previously suggested, the question is what else it has held back.
The Russian oil tanker Anatoly Kolodkin is heading toward the Cuban port of Matanzas carrying approximately 730,000 barrels of crude oil. Its official destination broadcast: 'Atlantis, USA.' A Russian warship escorted it through the English Channel, tracked by the Royal Navy for 48 hours before turning back once the tanker cleared. The Treasury Department reaffirmed the oil embargo on Cuba stands even as it eased sanctions on other Russian oil sales. Former Trump officials told Politico the tanker was never really about Cuba — it is a message, timed during maximum US attention to Iran, about whether the Monroe and Donroe doctrines have the teeth the administration claims. A second vessel, the Hong Kong-flagged Sea Horse, carrying ~200,000 barrels of Russian diesel, is now diverting toward Venezuela after weeks of drifting at sea. More consequentially: Russia proposed a quid pro quo to Witkoff and Kushner — stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine, and Russia would stop sharing the coordinates of US military assets in the Middle East with Iran. The US rejected the proposal. But the proposal itself is the sentence that matters: Russia is actively providing Iran with targeting coordinates for US military positions in the region. Russia is not a neutral observer of this war. Russia is an intelligence support actor.
The New York Times published a full dissection of the Treasury general license issued quietly Friday: 140 million barrels of Iranian oil, potentially worth $14 billion at current prices, authorized for sale to most countries including the United States, for one month, with no escrow mechanism and no obvious restrictions on payment channels, per the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Bessent's explanation on NBC: 'We are jiujitsuing the Iranians — using their own oil against them.' The logic is that infusing markets with Iranian oil lowers global prices and buys time to topple the Iranian government. The scrutiny is that it is not clear how expanding buyers of Iranian oil prevents Iran from profiting from war-driven volatility. The political exposure: Trump spent 2016 calling Obama's $400 million payment to Iran a 'scandal' and a 'ransom,' compared the $1.7 billion total to 'pallets of cash on planes to Iran.' Mark Warner: 'Where's the outrage now?' Gavin Newsom's office posted an image of Trump and Hegseth unloading a truck of cash with the caption about Obama's 'imaginary' pallets of cash. Trump on Monday: 'Any small amount of money that Iran gets is not going to have any difference in this war. But I want to have the system be lubricated.' The hypocrisy gap is now fully open and being publicly closed by Democrats in real time.
Markwayne Mullin was confirmed 54-45 as DHS Secretary on Monday night, with two Democrats voting yes and Rand Paul voting no. Trump will swear him in at 1:30pm Tuesday. The confirmation unlocks the DHS funding negotiation: the White House was waiting for Mullin's confirmation before moving on the shutdown deal. Senate Majority Leader Thune, after a White House meeting Monday involving Britt, Daines, Graham, Moreno, border czar Homan, Stephen Miller, and James Blair: 'If we end up going down that route, we'll try and make the most of the opportunity.' The deal structure being pitched: a standalone bill funds all DHS except ICE removal operations (which goes into a second reconciliation bill alongside SAVE Act provisions). Trump agreed to back off his demand to link DHS funding to the SAVE Act on condition that SAVE provisions become part of the reconciliation push. Appropriators are now exchanging legislative text. Collins: 'I'm more optimistic that by end of week we will fund DHS.' The reconciliation bill is the larger signal: it is the second party-line vehicle of this Congress, structured around immigration enforcement funding and elections provisions, with Iran war supplemental funding expected as a potential add-on. This is legislative activity that functions on its own track, separate from the war.
Lebanon's government on Tuesday withdrew its approval of Iran's ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheibani and gave him until March 29 to leave the country. The Lebanese foreign ministry cited 'Iran's violation of diplomatic norms and established protocols between the two countries.' The government typically uses that language to refer to Iranian interference in Lebanese internal affairs, specifically support for Hezbollah. The expulsion is operationally significant: Lebanon is formally separating its government from Iran's ambassador while Israel continues striking Hezbollah and pressing toward the Litani River. Defense Minister Katz confirmed Israel is following the Rafah model in Lebanon — bridge demolitions and building demolitions in border areas. The Lebanese expulsion is not a ceasefire signal. It is a sovereignty signal: the Lebanese government is beginning to publicly distance from Iran's military architecture while the Israeli military advances. This is the kind of regional fragmentation that creates diplomatic space — if and when there is a diplomatic framework to use it.
European Commission President von der Leyen and Australian Prime Minister Albanese signed an EU-Australia free trade deal and a defense partnership in Canberra overnight. Von der Leyen's framing was explicit: 'When it comes to trade, Europe is open for business. We are rearming. We are decarbonizing. We are becoming an independent Europe.' The deal stands to boost EU exports to Australia by 33% and save European businesses ~€1 billion annually in tariffs. The critical minerals component is the strategic core: EU Commission spokesperson said 'by diversifying, we reduce our reliance on China.' EU foreign policy chief Kallas, signing simultaneous security partnerships with Iceland and Ghana: 'If Russia prevails in Ukraine, it will also set a dangerous precedent for the Indo-Pacific.' This is the third major EU trade deal since Trump's tariff escalation began — following Mercosur (January) and India (two months ago). The architecture is consistent: Brussels is building a parallel trade and defense network that does not depend on US reliability. Albanese condemned Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz at the press conference, declining to confirm whether Australia would get drawn into securing the strait, but noting Australia moved an aircraft and supplied AMRAAMs to the UAE. Von der Leyen on EU maritime commitment: 'When the hostilities end, they could envisage an operation.' They are not in now. They are preparing to be in after.
Foreign Policy published a dispatch from Tehran by Ali Hashem who met with Foreign Minister Araghchi inside the Iranian capital. The interview — conducted without phone or filming equipment under strict government control — produced the clearest articulation of Iran's strategic doctrine since the war began. Araghchi: 'The Islamic Republic has a strong structure. The presence or absence of individuals does not affect it.' On a ceasefire: 'We do not believe in a cease-fire. We believe in ending the war.. on all fronts.' That condition — comprehensive resolution across Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and all other active fronts simultaneously — is structurally harder to achieve, longer to negotiate, and incentivizes Iran to hold on rather than make piecemeal concessions. The FP analysis frames the structural parallel to Ukraine: Russia invaded expecting a short war and encountered a state capable of absorbing shock and extending the conflict. Iran appears to be operating on a similar doctrine of duration — parallel chains of command, distributed authority, built-in institutional redundancy that makes leadership decapitation insufficient. Araghchi on targeting of Iranian officials: 'Anyone could become a target. But like everyone else, we are standing firm.' The brief has been tracking the duration thesis since March 11. It is now confirmed at the Iranian FM level on record.
Philippines President Marcos declared a state of national energy emergency amid global oil supply disruptions caused by the war. This is the first formal national emergency declaration by a US ally in the Asia-Pacific directly attributable to the US-started war with Iran. It follows the Asian diplomat assessment from Monday that Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the Philippines would run out of oil within three weeks. Every week the Hormuz disruption continues is a week that US Indo-Pacific allies are being pushed toward alternative relationships — and China is available, not fighting, and offering energy. On markets: Bloomberg opinion piece Tuesday states there are no reliable safe havens for investors in the Iran war — gold has lost a quarter of its value, Bitcoin is down over 40%, and even the dollar has made only modest gains from the geopolitical fear bid. Private credit stress is also surfacing: Apollo Global capped withdrawals from one of its largest non-traded retail funds; a fund run by Future Standard and KKR was cut to junk by Moody's — described as 'a rare occurrence in the $1.8 trillion market.' These are the leading-edge signals of financial system stress from a war that has already surpassed the 1970s oil shocks combined according to the IEA.
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